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World Bank likely to peg Indian GDP at 5.5 in 2012: Kaushik Basu




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Published on: Sat, 15 Dec 2012 at 05:46 IST
World Bank likely to peg Indian GDP at 5.5 in 2012: Kaushik Basu
New Delhi: World Bank in its initial estimates has expected Indian economy's growth to remain around 5.5 % this year. An announcement in this regard can be done on January 15 by the bank in its announcement. To reach this rate, WB expects the economy to grow by more than 5.5 % in October- December months.

Moreover, it is likely to peg India's GDP to grow by little less that 6% next year, 7% in 2014 and 2015.

This was hinted by Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist at World Bank at the ongoing Economic Conclave. Stressing that reforms started by government and especially its direct cash transfer scheme will be useful for the poor and will help economy go back on growth path.

Indian economy showed growth by 5.3 % in the fourth quarter (January- March) of 2011-12. The average growth in the first six months of FY 2012-13 was 5.4 %. It stated that a growth of 5.5 % in calendar year 2012 would be possible only when GDP growth in October- December is higher than 5.5 %.

"You could expect it to be just short of 6% in the next year and 7% in 2014 and 2015," he said. He added that it may see some changes when the Bank makes a formal announcement on January 15

He went on to add that next year would be very hard for India's growth trajectory because of global slowdown. He said few countries like Thailand and Indonesia are growing at 6-7% rate.

He said,"The European situation will remain very difficult up to the end of 2014 and may be in the beginning of 2015. That is going to rub-off on India but if it can begin to move up to 6-7% in this difficult situation that would be good."

Emphasizing on India's fundamental strength he said,"If you work on this there is no reason why the country can't get back to 8-9% growth."
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