On survey of 26,000 peoples, opinion poll conducting companies predicting result of 12 crore voters

Photo of Uttar Pradesh map.

Lucknow: One of India’s leading Hindi news channel has conducted a final opinion poll survey in which it has conducted survey on only 60 to 70 percent voters and has predicted that Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is behind the Samajwadi Party alliance in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh state assembly elections.

On other hand, the survey has also predicted that beside the fact that BJP is behind the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh but for Saffron Party seems like that ‘good days’ (Acche Din) are lined for the party as it is going to regain majority in Punjab and in Goa election they are going to form government.

Results of the final opinion poll show that the BJP has lost about 25 seats in in UP between the previous opinion poll done in December and the latest one done in January.

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The political pendulum in India’s most important battleground state has started shifting away from the BJP and towards the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance.

Where the pendulum rests will finally decide whether the BJP is able to cross the finishing line in the front or is trumped by the Akhilesh-Rahul combination.

The survey predicts that the BJP would bag between 180-191 seats if elections were held right now. The SP-Congress alliance comes in a close second, bagging between 168-178 seats.

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The biggest loser as a result of this alliance has been the Bahujan Samaj Party, which seems to have lost 40 seats between December and January.

The last one month has seen significant changes in the vote-share percentages of major political formations. The BSP seems to have lost more than one-fifth of its votes, crashing from 26% vote share to 20.1%.

The opinion poll numbers show that the Congress allying with the Samajwadi Party has added more than 7% votes to the SP’s vote percentage. The SP by itself had 26% votes. The SP-Congress alliance is projected to bag 33.2% vote share.

The BJP’s own vote share has remained largely unaffected by the new alliance. In fact, the BJP’s vote share is projected to go up from 33% in December to 34.8% in January.

The election in UP now is essentially a two-horse race between the BJP and the SP-Cong alliance. In December, the BJP had more than a 100 seat lead over its nearest rival, the SP. But the Akhilesh-Rahul alliance has completely altered the political dynamics of UP.

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Even though the Congress is a diminished force by itself, its partnership with the SP, has helped add 76 seats to the so-called secular alliance within a span of a month.